Dependent-Raft
0x86ef33952031a1c5192e6523bde07ed3efa03c64
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.1K
Realised
$-2.1K
Win rate
1%
71 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
612 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-181.38
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET
500 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-134.21
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
212 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-29.60
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
128 shares @ 29.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-38.14
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
125 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET
110 shares @ 9.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET
70 shares @ 37.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-26.33
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
68 shares @ 36.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET
65 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
64 shares @ 33.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-21.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET$4.19Jul 20, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET$10.64Jul 20, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$5.34Jul 20, 19:33 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$20.00Jul 20, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$8.34Jul 20, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET$8.35Jul 20, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$13.37Jul 20, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET$8.33Jul 20, 11:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.15Jul 20, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$13.21Jul 20, 11:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$8.34Jul 20, 11:52 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$9.89Jul 20, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET$5.17Jul 20, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$2.12Jul 20, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET$20.46Jun 14, 21:21 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$20.96Jun 14, 21:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$15.31Jun 14, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$5.26Jun 14, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$10.42Jun 14, 21:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$14.54Jun 14, 21:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
63/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 71 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
71 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $7.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 30, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 23:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 71 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.