0x8709b4f8d1e9ae24ae18146b2b119c96c0601e9b
0x8709b4f8d1e9ae24ae18146b2b119c96c0601e9b
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$29.46
Total PnL
$-3.51
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?
11 shares @ 54.0¢·now 58.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$6.50
$0.45
- NO
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June?
7 shares @ 75.0¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$5.11
$0.23
- NO
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$5.07
$0.03
- YES
Will China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?
7 shares @ 69.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$4.13
$-0.91
- YES
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?
8 shares @ 29.0¢·now 32.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$2.60
$0.28
- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
7 shares @ 28.0¢·now 28.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.85
$0.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
8 shares @ 39.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.67
$-1.50
- YES
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of July 13 2026?
7 shares @ 33.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$1.50
$-0.81
- YES
Will PPI YoY be 6.0% in June?
8 shares @ 29.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.04
$-1.28
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.9% in June?$4.94Jul 14, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in June?$2.40Jul 13, 20:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$0.00Jul 13, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of July 13 2026?$2.37Jul 13, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?$3.27Jul 12, 20:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 12?$0.00Jul 12, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$1.90Jul 12, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Core CPI YoY be 2.8% in June?$6.19Jul 11, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?$5.12Jul 11, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$15.00Jul 11, 08:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$0.00Jul 11, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 11 to July 13, 2026?$1.68Jul 10, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?$7.62Jul 10, 18:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?$5.09Jul 10, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Constitution" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?$3.06Jul 9, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?$0.00Jul 9, 20:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $355 Week of July 6 2026?$0.00Jul 9, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of July 6 2026?$6.75Jul 9, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PPI YoY be 6.0% in June?$2.40Jul 9, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $126 Week of July 6 2026?$1.94Jul 8, 20:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $3.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 08:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 08:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.