0x874b25071e6260301efc844c86f361693ca24af0
0x874b25071e6260301efc844c86f361693ca24af0
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
189
Open notional
$837.09
Total PnL
$-3.2K
Realised
$-1.3K
Win rate
11%
129 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 189- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 22?
279 shares @ 35.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$278.77
$179.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on July 22?
175 shares @ 37.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$174.78
$109.44
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 3?
136 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$136.00
$0.41
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 22?
102 shares @ 31.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$101.66
$70.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 23?
42 shares @ 71.0¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$34.86
$5.04
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?
64 shares @ 46.9¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$32.93
$2.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 23?
63 shares @ 47.0¢·now 51.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$32.45
$2.83
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on July 22?
28 shares @ 43.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$28.07
$15.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?
30 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$10.50
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?
9 shares @ 33.0¢·now 36.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$3.42
$0.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on July 23?$10.84Jul 22, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?$2.24Jul 22, 23:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 29°C on July 24?$0.85Jul 22, 23:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 23?$7.69Jul 22, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on July 23?$30.39Jul 22, 22:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on July 23?$30.39Jul 22, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$1.56Jul 22, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.11Jul 22, 21:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.10Jul 22, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.12Jul 22, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on July 22?$0.22Jul 22, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on July 22?$5.46Jul 22, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 22?$8.60Jul 22, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 22?$5.12Jul 22, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 23?$11.39Jul 22, 20:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?$0.67Jul 22, 19:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?$15.20Jul 22, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on July 22?$0.19Jul 22, 18:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?$6.71Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on July 22?$2.55Jul 22, 18:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 129 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
129 closed markets, 11% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $7.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 15:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 23:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 129 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.