Straight-Wrinkle
0x87650b9f63563f7c456d9bbcceee5f9faf06ed81
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$52.0K
Total PnL
$16.3K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
88%
73 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
26544 shares @ 96.2¢·now 98.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.0K
$491.06
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
25000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.7K
$10.5K
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
24999 shares @ 0.8¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.7K
$6.5K
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
25000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$762.50
$567.20
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
600 shares @ 17.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$525.00
$423.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
500 shares @ 16.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$457.50
$377.50
- NO
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?
454 shares @ 39.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp May 31, 2026$452.50
$275.58
- NO
Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?
400 shares @ 22.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$378.00
$290.00
- YES
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026?
400 shares @ 9.0¢·now 66.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$264.00
$228.00
- YES
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
25000 shares @ 0.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$262.50
$67.20
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.92Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.92Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.94Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.96Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.96Jul 24, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.92Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.88Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$1.87Jul 21, 20:06 UTC
- YIELD$1.89Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.87Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$1.89Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.90Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.93Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$1.96Jul 15, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.98Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.96Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.92Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$1.94Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.93Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.93Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
50/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 73 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
8 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
73 closed markets, 88% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 8
- Avg trade size
- $13.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 18:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 73 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.