Deadly-Fireplace
0x879c4874e01fae5162ed92780faf24ced485279b
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$1.44
Total PnL
$-14.96
Realised
$1.90
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?
141 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.77
$-3.78
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be at least $1.7B at market close on IPO day?
50 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.40
$0.25
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.3B and $1.5B at market close on IPO day?
46 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.21
$-1.55
- YES
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?
40 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.06
$-0.20
- OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- YES
Will Trump's remarks not air?
197 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 4?
150 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.97
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 3?
150 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.25
- NO
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 1,200,000 and 1,500,000 voters?
139 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5?
100 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REWARD$6.22Jun 8, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?$0.08Jun 7, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?$1.60Jun 7, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jun 7, 14:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Safepoint's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.7B at market close on IPO day?$0.30Jun 7, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?$0.83Jun 7, 10:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?$0.62Jun 7, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June?$1.91Jun 7, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?$0.01Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$0.13Jun 7, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$24.21Jun 7, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?$286.60Jun 6, 23:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?$0.20Jun 6, 23:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?$117.67Jun 6, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?$22.81Jun 6, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026?$146.92Jun 6, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karmine Corp qualify to MSI 2026?$0.01Jun 6, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7?$1.42Jun 6, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score between 1480 and 1490?$2.00Jun 6, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Karmine Corp qualify to MSI 2026?$0.04Jun 6, 17:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $12.58
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 6, 07:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 8, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.