Frightened-Congregation
0x87ed6aa0457a4c96b6b0f782a963043633aca63b
Wallet digest
Activity score
53/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$456.48
Total PnL
$-10.2K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
1000 shares @ 23.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$435.00
$205.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1591 shares @ 4.4¢·now 1.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$21.48
$-48.52
- YES
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
28379 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-570.06
- YES
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
26423 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-1.6K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting?
24444 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.7K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
9033 shares @ 15.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-1.4K
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
8044 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-432.95
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.0% in 2025?
3970 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-746.32
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?
3245 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-332.80
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.5% in 2025?
2509 shares @ 19.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-494.70
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 20, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 19, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 17, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 13, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 9, 00:27 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 8, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 7, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 6, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 5, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.