Firsthand-Donkey
0x88020bf10da8cf6a9bc88288431381cdaa70456d
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-113.81
Realised
$0.53
Win rate
45%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 19?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
85 shares @ 58.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 19?
31 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET
20 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET
15 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 0 Canada?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
13 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
13 shares @ 40.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET$4.13Jul 15, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET$1.04Jul 12, 03:50 UTC
- REDEEMUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$2.27Jul 12, 03:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)$1.03Jul 12, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)$1.04Jul 12, 00:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET$1.06Jul 4, 19:19 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$1.09Jul 4, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$1.01Jul 4, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$1.05Jul 1, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$0.00Jul 1, 09:15 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.08Jul 1, 09:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$1.00Jul 1, 09:07 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.05Jul 1, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.03Jul 1, 08:35 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.96Jun 30, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET$5.05Jun 30, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.21Jun 30, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.03Jun 30, 21:41 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$10.20Jun 30, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.18Jun 30, 21:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
45% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $9.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 28, 20:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 19:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.