Scholarly-Wafer
0x88037e854213c72c6d900af1473d49faac01eb1d
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$63.37
Total PnL
$-9.0K
Realised
$28.9K
Win rate
97%
115 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
69 shares @ 79.0¢·now 92.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$63.37
$8.95
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $126k in October?
30000 shares @ 21.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-6.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 in November?
22143 shares @ 6.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 in November?
22073 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.6K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February?
18001 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.6K
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
16281 shares @ 40.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.5K
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in October?
10564 shares @ 15.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.7K
- NO
Kristi Noem out by March 31?
9895 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-19.79
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in July?
5125 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-430.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $118k in October?
4450 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-267.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMU.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31?$0.96May 22, 20:23 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$358.50May 22, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?$372.00Mar 12, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran strike Israel on March 10?$1.4KMar 12, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$40.42Mar 12, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$117.46Mar 12, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$40.42Mar 12, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$40.42Mar 12, 13:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by March 13?$1.11Mar 12, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 57 million views on day 3?$0.71Mar 11, 13:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?$5.6KMar 11, 13:28 UTC
- REWARD$0.43Mar 11, 00:01 UTC
- MERGEWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$2.0KMar 10, 16:39 UTC
- MERGEWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$0.76Mar 10, 16:38 UTC
- MERGEWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$7.8KMar 10, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$280.08Mar 10, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$17.63Mar 10, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$1.6KMar 10, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$334.41Mar 10, 16:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 52 and 55 million views on day 3?$20.25Mar 10, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
64/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
97% win rate over 115 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
115 closed markets, 97% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $420.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 10, 15:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 22, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 115 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.