Scholarly-Pill-Defeat
0x881502664d25a3e0cb1f710287814c4b3492a510
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$72.39
Total PnL
$-207.23
Realised
$-2.18
Win rate
0%
27 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 18?
23 shares @ 72.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$21.55
$5.04
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?
23 shares @ 72.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$18.72
$2.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 18?
19 shares @ 71.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$16.43
$2.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?
22 shares @ 74.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$15.46
$-1.00
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 18?
23 shares @ 73.0¢·now 1.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.23
$-16.24
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
10714 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-69.99
- TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?
24 shares @ 75.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 17, 2026$0.00
$-18.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 28?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 20?$16.67Aug 18, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on August 19?$16.67Aug 18, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 18?$8.44Aug 18, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on August 18?$8.14Aug 18, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 18?$13.69Aug 18, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 18?$16.74Aug 18, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on August 17?$18.23Aug 16, 15:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stage$3.15Aug 15, 08:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 13?$7.14Aug 13, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on August 13?$5.06Aug 12, 21:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?$6.78Aug 12, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 11?$0.00Aug 11, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 13?$5.07Aug 11, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on August 10?$6.58Aug 11, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 10?$6.16Aug 10, 22:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 10?$6.40Aug 10, 16:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 10?$6.67Aug 10, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on August 12?$4.99Aug 10, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 12?$5.02Aug 10, 12:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 11?$5.02Aug 10, 06:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 27 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
27 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $6.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 4, 09:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 10:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 27 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.