Expert-Carabao
0x88449bda25b4c3252c94abd475deaa3169eeb7e5
Wallet digest
Activity score
79/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
59
Open notional
$439.24
Total PnL
$-791.35
Realised
$37.41
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 59- NO
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 in July?
310 shares @ 33.5¢·now 53.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$164.13
$60.54
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in July?
125 shares @ 44.5¢·now 85.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$106.87
$51.25
- NO
Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 20 2026?
90 shares @ 44.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$76.95
$36.75
- YES
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in July?
125 shares @ 45.4¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$39.37
$-17.32
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?
101 shares @ 30.6¢·now 33.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$33.74
$2.92
- NO
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
37 shares @ 58.4¢·now 49.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$18.18
$-3.26
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in July?
364 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-48.76
- YES
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
300 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-26.29
- NO
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $80 in July?
216 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$0.00
$-71.39
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 29 2026?
165 shares @ 14.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-24.40
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $150 in July?$25.92Jul 21, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$3.24Jul 21, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?$3.48Jul 21, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 20 2026?$25.57Jul 21, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$15.40Jul 21, 06:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 in July?$16.90Jul 21, 06:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?$104.13Jul 21, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$6.14Jul 21, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 in July?$13.05Jul 21, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 in July?$8.03Jul 20, 15:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the AQI at the World Cup final be 90 or higher?$20.00Jul 20, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $810 Week of July 20 2026?$15.42Jul 19, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMSpain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?$25.00Jul 19, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of July 20 2026?$10.14Jul 19, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.15Jul 19, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$6.02Jul 19, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $95 in July?$5.39Jul 19, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.07Jul 19, 20:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.04Jul 19, 20:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$2.09Jul 19, 20:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $8.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 04:01 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 19:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.