Carefree-Effector
0x8848c4474353779c2a3b643aed62cc5a0cf50bec
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$205.03
Total PnL
$-35.58
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
200 shares @ 82.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$165.00
$-0.34
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
204 shares @ 12.9¢·now 19.7¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$40.03
$13.75
- NO
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?
137 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-48.98
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$26.28Jun 14, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$80.00Jun 14, 12:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$165.34Jun 14, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$98.00Jun 14, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$78.08Jun 12, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$116.06Jun 12, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$83.94Jun 12, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?$121.92Jun 12, 12:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill the White House Press Secretary say "Democrat" 3+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$62.00May 20, 00:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the White House Press Secretary say "Democrat" 3+ times during the next White House Press Briefing?$31.62May 19, 01:37 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$0.00May 6, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$4.91May 6, 02:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET$5.33May 6, 02:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marco Rubio be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?$45.29May 6, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" at The Villages on May 1?$92.19May 6, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Marco Rubio be the first substitute White House Press Secretary?$42.37May 5, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" at The Villages on May 1?$37.97May 1, 22:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" at The Villages on May 1?$49.44May 1, 22:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$4.72May 1, 02:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET$5.18May 1, 02:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $43.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 18, 22:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.