Timely-Misplacement
0x8848ea2c510535202a360ee86f346402c7f0b9e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
46
Open notional
$5.38
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$-70.70
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 46- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
5 shares @ 98.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.38
$0.09
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026?
5228 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 16, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?
4672 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
2170 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
2038 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-142.65
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 4AM ET
1616 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 15, 2026$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 20?
1333 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 January 12-18?
1200 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-26.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 680-699 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?
1195 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-40.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$5.29Mar 1, 00:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iraq next?$0.00Feb 6, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Nigeria next?$0.00Feb 6, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$0.00Feb 6, 17:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Yemen next?$0.00Feb 6, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$10.00Jan 29, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$10.00Jan 29, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$4.66Jan 29, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$10.00Jan 29, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$10.00Jan 29, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$50.00Jan 29, 17:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?$142.65Jan 26, 16:14 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?$142.64Jan 26, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 25?$180.00Jan 25, 16:53 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$180.00Jan 24, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?$10.32Jan 23, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$270.00Jan 23, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by January 31?$100.00Jan 23, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?$107.55Jan 23, 16:52 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026?$272.77Jan 23, 16:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $61.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 17, 17:21 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 1, 00:07 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".