Ragged-Turning
0x88494a806a4b337e3d3e1babe7b76f520e3b98d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
17
Open notional
$34.55
Total PnL
$-25.53
Realised
$-25.25
Win rate
33%
12 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
16 shares @ 98.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$16.26
$0.26
- NO
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025?
2 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 17, 2025$2.27
$0.05
- NO
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?
2 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 7, 2025$2.13
$0.01
- NO
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
2 shares @ 92.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.96
$0.14
- NO
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?
2 shares @ 85.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2025$1.94
$0.29
- NO
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?
2 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2025$1.70
$0.10
- NO
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
2 shares @ 58.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 20, 2025$1.59
$0.67
- YES
Will Barcelona win La Liga?
1 shares @ 66.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 25, 2025$1.18
$0.40
- NO
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup?
1 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.16
$0.06
- NO
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals?
1 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$1.15
$0.07
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting?$1.00Apr 17, 05:02 UTC
- REDEEMPanthers vs. Red Wings$0.00Apr 17, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanthers vs. Red Wings$6.67Apr 6, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanthers vs. Red Wings$3.74Apr 6, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanthers vs. Red Wings$37.44Apr 6, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYPanthers vs. Red Wings$8.31Apr 6, 13:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference?$9.30Apr 6, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$18.98Apr 6, 09:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Real Madrid win La Liga?$11.76Apr 6, 09:38 UTC
- TRADESELLFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$30.88Apr 6, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Kanye name his token YZY?$0.00Apr 6, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$0.00Apr 6, 09:38 UTC
- REDEEMYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$22.13Apr 6, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.00Mar 28, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting?$23.00Mar 28, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$33.00Mar 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting?$16.00Mar 28, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$22.00Mar 28, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$10.12Mar 28, 14:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Barcelona win La Liga?$11.22Mar 28, 14:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 12 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
12 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $78.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 15:25 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 17, 05:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 12 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.