Elaborate-Casement
0x885040e00a6aa864db840be8cbb10e706fab1ab2
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-1.1K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will "Jurassic World: Rebirth" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70–79?
830 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2025$0.00
$-7.07
- NO
Will Trump talk to Keir Starmer in November?
408 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-292.96
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?
190 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
154 shares @ 28.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-43.63
- NO
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 5?
60 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2025$0.00
$-23.40
- NO
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
29 shares @ 68.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-19.72
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - July 1, 7AM ET
20 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2025$0.00
$-5.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Keir Starmer in November?$292.96Nov 20, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?$292.96Nov 20, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?$158.20Nov 19, 12:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$158.20Nov 19, 12:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?$145.07Nov 18, 07:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$144.29Nov 18, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released on November 26 2025?$4.00Nov 17, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$300.00Nov 15, 09:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?$1000.00Nov 6, 13:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?$1.1KNov 6, 13:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15?$450.00Oct 22, 20:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$650.89Oct 22, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$390.00Aug 29, 17:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the top AI model on August 31?$391.23Aug 29, 17:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on August 31?$300.20Aug 11, 05:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5 be released by August 15?$295.43Aug 5, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released by August 15?$194.31Aug 1, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released by August 15?$6.23Aug 1, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-5 be released by August 15?$25.75Aug 1, 18:50 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hamas ceasefire before August?$0.00Aug 1, 18:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $149.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 30, 20:51 UTC
- Last active
- Nov 20, 17:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.