Straight-Harpsichord
0x8872429b97d90c13176eed8a6855581de536561d
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
26
Open notional
$271.24
Total PnL
$14.34
Realised
$581.37
Win rate
87%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 26- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 July 13-19?
931 shares @ 14.4¢·now 4.3¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$40.41
$-93.96
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?
128 shares @ 31.8¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$40.28
$-0.38
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
61 shares @ 50.6¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$26.94
$-3.70
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in July?
331 shares @ 9.3¢·now 7.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$24.79
$-5.85
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
124 shares @ 27.7¢·now 18.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$23.00
$-11.44
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?
4251 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$19.13
$-34.32
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?
139 shares @ 24.1¢·now 13.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$18.12
$-15.46
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 July 13-19?
578 shares @ 6.1¢·now 2.5¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.69
$-20.49
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
17 shares @ 70.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.25
$1.28
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?
467 shares @ 6.1¢·now 2.6¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$12.39
$-16.12
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$12.01Jul 16, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$12.00Jul 16, 17:14 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$56.91Jul 16, 17:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$12.00Jul 16, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$12.00Jul 16, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 July 13-19?$12.00Jul 16, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$11.90Jul 16, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$0.10Jul 16, 15:41 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?$40.30Jul 16, 15:29 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$24.80Jul 16, 15:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?$12.04Jul 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$11.97Jul 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$11.97Jul 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?$10.53Jul 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?$1.44Jul 16, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 16?$11.96Jul 16, 15:23 UTC
- MERGEWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?$18.19Jul 16, 15:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?$11.99Jul 16, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$12.00Jul 16, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,000 on July 16?$12.00Jul 16, 15:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
47/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
87% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $9.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 13:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 17:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.