Mushy-Transport
0x8884545796ce2b6fa7c0ea667dc3b3926ace84ee
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$17.23
Total PnL
$7.40
Realised
$1.82
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
1281 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.41
$2.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 27?
75 shares @ 1.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$6.00
$5.25
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
348 shares @ 1.7¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.83
$-2.03
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.20
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$0.00Jul 25, 15:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 27?$0.75Jul 25, 13:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 24?$0.00Jul 25, 02:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$0.57Jul 24, 18:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$0.10Jul 24, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$0.71Jul 24, 15:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$0.66Jul 24, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$0.49Jul 24, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$0.18Jul 24, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$0.45Jul 24, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$0.82Jul 24, 10:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 25?$1.14Jul 24, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 24?$0.16Jul 23, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 24?$0.42Jul 23, 17:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 23, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.50Jul 23, 05:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$0.60Jul 23, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 23, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.01Jul 23, 04:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?$0.15Jul 23, 04:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 05:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 15:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.