Crisp-Ligula
0x88f770f4da69211932d7b1d846bb722f4ab6e7ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
136
Open notional
$48.86
Total PnL
$-578.16
Realised
$-6.04
Win rate
30%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 136- YES
Will Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
3397 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$35.67
$18.81
- YES
Will George Simion be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
910 shares @ 0.1¢·now 1.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.19
$12.28
- YES
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
7163 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-91.50
- UNDER
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 208.5
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-election?
1497 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-22.45
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11?
1288 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
1200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026?
946 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-36.16
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
912 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.74
- YES
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?
671 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.37
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$16.23Jun 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$6.61Jun 24, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$1.44Jun 24, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Calin Georgescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$7.26Jun 22, 19:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$8.50Jun 22, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$4.77Jun 22, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$1.64Jun 14, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$1.78Jun 14, 17:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$6.63Jun 14, 17:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alexandru Rafila be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$0.01Jun 14, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.07Jun 13, 08:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Jun 13, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET$1.06Jun 13, 08:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET$1.06Jun 13, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.06Jun 13, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$5.04Jun 12, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?$2.87Jun 12, 17:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$1.52Jun 12, 17:17 UTC
- TRADESELLUnited States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5$3.55Jun 12, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)$3.53Jun 12, 17:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
30% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 17:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 15:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.