Mediocre-Host
0x8906d4af3ff016a85cb464aa00046b5656267b41
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
9
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-406.20
Realised
$14.07
Win rate
83%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
939 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-35.50
- YES
Will India record a medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
714 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-4.58
- NO
Will Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?
527 shares @ 59.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-311.42
- NO
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?
56 shares @ 53.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-29.49
- NO
ChatGPT Outage by February 28, 2026?
37 shares @ 61.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-22.68
- NO
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?
29 shares @ 31.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-9.21
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?
16 shares @ 23.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-3.73
- NO
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 7, 2026?
11 shares @ 31.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.33
- FURIA
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Krakow Playoffs
2 shares @ 14.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$48.33Feb 25, 05:34 UTC
- TRADESELLECB rate cut in 2026?$15.41Feb 25, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$18.96Feb 25, 05:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$16.81Feb 25, 05:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?$13.96Feb 25, 05:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?$16.81Feb 25, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$54.90Feb 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran by March 31?$27.30Feb 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eurozone GDP growth in Q1 2026 be less than 0.5%?$27.60Feb 25, 05:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$52.99Feb 25, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Epstein" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$52.99Feb 25, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$53.27Feb 25, 05:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$53.27Feb 25, 05:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$49.56Feb 25, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?$49.56Feb 25, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?$31.83Feb 23, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump declassifies new UFO files by February 28?$31.84Feb 23, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$35.16Feb 23, 07:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nancy Pelosi applaud during Trump's State of the Union?$0.40Feb 23, 07:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS strikes Iran by February 22, 2026?$35.56Feb 23, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
83% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $22.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 20, 08:37 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 25, 05:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.