Miserly-Snob
0x891809ccbe713b313eb3de55915f0235e75b8824
Wallet digest
Activity score
94/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$2.5K
Total PnL
$-5.2K
Realised
$82.52
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in July?
2020 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$2.0K
$13.13
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 91.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$457.50
$2.50
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 11 to May 13, 2026?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Enrique Valderrama win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
20000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?
11118 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 12, 2026$0.00
$-227.91
- NO
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Wolfgang Grozo win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-12?
10000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-21?
5000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$334.51Jul 27, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?$280.00Jul 27, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?$2.10Jul 25, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?$2.10Jul 25, 10:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the margin of victory at the end of the 2026 Tour De France be 5:00-6:59?$10.47Jul 25, 10:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$1.08Jul 25, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?$1.02Jul 25, 10:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valentin Paret-Peintre be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$5.31Jul 25, 07:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valentin Paret-Peintre be awarded the Polka Dot Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$20.64Jul 24, 13:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mads Pedersen be awarded the Green Jersey at the 2026 Tour De France?$301.55Jul 24, 12:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?$3.15Jul 23, 17:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$701.42Jul 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$10.49Jul 23, 11:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paul Seixas win the 2026 Tour De France?$5.25Jul 23, 11:41 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
8/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $439.69
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 09:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.