Quizzical-Pendulum-Serval
0x89761d47444827e00daf9baaa1391875b1054ea7
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$182.64
Total PnL
$-140.75
Realised
$-68.69
Win rate
20%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 26?
50 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$49.98
$10.97
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 26?
43 shares @ 80.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$43.29
$8.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27?
50 shares @ 75.0¢·now 76.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$38.00
$0.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 35.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$17.75
$0.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 27?
50 shares @ 23.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$12.00
$0.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 26?
7 shares @ 81.4¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$6.01
$0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 26?
5 shares @ 15.4¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$4.99
$4.22
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?
4 shares @ 39.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$3.75
$2.28
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?
5 shares @ 61.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$3.31
$0.18
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?
10 shares @ 27.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$2.12
$-0.54
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 26?$10.10Jun 26, 07:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 25?$12.01Jun 26, 05:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 25?$14.33Jun 26, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$4.17Jun 26, 03:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$5.48Jun 26, 03:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$3.67Jun 26, 03:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$3.52Jun 26, 03:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$9.40Jun 26, 03:00 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.44Jun 26, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$5.59Jun 26, 02:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$1.15Jun 26, 02:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$30.00Jun 26, 02:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$15.94Jun 26, 02:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?$1.85Jun 26, 02:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 27?$0.81Jun 26, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$17.91Jun 26, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26?$0.59Jun 26, 02:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$2.18Jun 26, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 26?$0.40Jun 26, 02:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 27?$1.56Jun 26, 02:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $9.03
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 26, 07:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.