Admirable-Receipt
0x89ab3d8e93ff07a1494b7460fd10e2ba7f6aa352
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-297.01
Realised
$7.66
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting?
3050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 29, 2025$0.00
$-6.10
- YES
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
1457 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-39.96
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?
1431 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2025$0.00
$-18.31
- YES
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting?
1425 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2024$0.00
$-6.30
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
1323 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 29, 2025$0.00
$-5.29
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 19, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-07?
200 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-16.00
- MANCHESTER UNITED FC
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)
187 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-32.28
- MANCHESTER UNITED FC
Spread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)
143 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$97.50May 30, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw?$29.89May 30, 14:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$94.15Mar 9, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)$13.91Mar 4, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)$5.00Mar 4, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Manchester United FC (-2.5)$10.00Mar 4, 20:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$28.91Mar 4, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: Manchester United FC (-1.5)$13.37Mar 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?$13.32Mar 1, 17:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?$5.00Mar 1, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01?$17.00Mar 1, 15:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League?$1.00Mar 1, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?$98.75Mar 1, 15:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01?$40.60Mar 1, 14:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$142.75Feb 11, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$300.66Feb 11, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$49.88Feb 10, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tran Luu Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$11.00Feb 10, 04:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?$11.00Feb 10, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?$78.30Feb 9, 10:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $51.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 22, 14:31 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 18:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.