Oblong-Flat
0x89b44e69ef23081e604282b4c5f7aa8e4c1355bc
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$182.16
Win rate
78%
67 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 13?
5397 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-59.07
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 12?
2505 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.49
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16?
2500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 23?
2381 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 23, 2026$0.00
$-12.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 12?
1667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 25?
1552 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on February 18?
1299 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 18, 2026$0.00
$-65.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14?
1224 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.61
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 14?
1198 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.09
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 11?
1174 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$7.48Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADESELLAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$3.53Jul 27, 07:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$10.32Jul 26, 22:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?$1.20Jul 26, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?$0.44Jul 26, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 26?$0.36Jul 26, 06:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$2.50Jul 26, 04:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C or higher on July 26?$2.50Jul 26, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYAbu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$4.80Jul 26, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$9.31Jul 25, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$1.94Jul 25, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$1.94Jul 25, 02:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$5.71Jul 24, 12:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$8.40Jul 24, 12:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$1.00Jul 24, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$10.08Jul 24, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C on July 25?$22.80Jul 24, 07:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?$28.27Jul 23, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?$10.63Jul 22, 23:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on July 23?$1.56Jul 22, 23:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
73/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 67 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
67 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $6.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 06:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 67 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.