Plaintive-Macro
0x89bf123c2a0d028fa83fd2b917b994d2d6f52ca2
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$56.61
Total PnL
$2.86
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
US forces enter Iran by March 31?
25 shares @ 92.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$25.38
$1.83
- YES
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?
21 shares @ 96.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$20.73
$0.73
- YES
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
6 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$5.95
$0.95
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
5 shares @ 65.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.56
$1.56
- NO
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
3 shares @ 82.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$23.55Mar 30, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?$20.00Mar 30, 06:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.00Mar 30, 06:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$5.00Mar 30, 06:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$42.72Mar 30, 06:46 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?$2.85Mar 30, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.99Mar 30, 06:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$2.34Mar 30, 06:17 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$1.64Mar 30, 06:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate cut by April 2026 meeting?$2.67Mar 14, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?$1.30Mar 14, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after March 2026 meeting?$1.60Mar 14, 07:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$5.57Mar 14, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?$5.40Feb 25, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?$38.00Feb 25, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?$2.20Feb 25, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$2.00Feb 25, 07:53 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$47.60Feb 25, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNo change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?$41.41Dec 24, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMFed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting?$7.29Dec 24, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $17.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 03:24 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 30, 06:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.