Probable-Dose
0x89d44816482895b0a88c1b30cd5b1861d9f09b9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
63/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$23.38
Total PnL
$-70.59
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
11 shares @ 19.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$10.53
$8.53
- YES
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?
8 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 11, 2026$7.59
$1.59
- YES
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$5.26
$3.26
- YES
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31?
556 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026?
313 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
78 shares @ 32.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.98
- YES
DeepSeek V4 released by February 28?
63 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
54 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
US evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- PATRIOTS
Seahawks vs. Patriots
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$4.75Mar 18, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?$7.00Mar 18, 15:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$1.00Mar 16, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLDeepSeek V4 released by March 15?$0.48Mar 11, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11?$6.00Mar 11, 21:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?$5.00Mar 6, 15:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$5.00Mar 6, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-04?$2.00Mar 3, 15:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?$1.00Mar 2, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw?$1.00Mar 1, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?$2.00Mar 1, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by March 15?$1.00Feb 27, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYDeepSeek V4 released by February 28?$1.00Feb 27, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-27?$10.00Feb 27, 16:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $100 on the final trading day of February 2026?$1.00Feb 27, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$1.00Feb 27, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?$2.00Feb 27, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS issues Do-Not-Travel warning for Jalisco State by February 28, 2026?$1.00Feb 23, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS evacuates Guadalajara consulate by Feb 28?$1.00Feb 23, 18:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?$2.00Feb 18, 18:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $3.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 12, 19:27 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 18, 17:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.