Better-Frigate
0x8a0fb7958542cd481daf9d1cbd19b5d35445cb13
Wallet digest
Activity score
30/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-434.52
Realised
$-15.15
Win rate
0%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- YES
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?
15640 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-15.64
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-02-25?
715 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?
298 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-25.00
- YES
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17?
222 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Biden" first during the 2026 State of the Union address?
200 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
179 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-03?$16.11Jul 4, 00:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iraq win on 2026-06-22?$24.43Jun 22, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iraq win on 2026-06-22?$16.21Jun 22, 21:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?$1.13Jun 15, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?$1.12Jun 14, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?$3.73Jun 13, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Haiti win on 2026-06-13?$4.10Jun 13, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?$4.12Jun 13, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morocco win on 2026-06-13?$12.80Jun 13, 23:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Qatar win on 2026-06-13?$7.71Jun 13, 17:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$19.79Jun 13, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$10.60Jun 12, 20:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 14?$1.05Jun 12, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$0.48Jun 12, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?$3.06Jun 12, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Canada win on 2026-06-12?$5.07Jun 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United States win on 2026-06-12?$10.16Jun 12, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.07Jun 12, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.06Jun 12, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05?$14.07May 4, 09:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $10.18
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 20, 08:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 00:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.