Tight-Email
0x8a21383bea53b7a7ef20025158a9f6b368a0fec3
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
71
Open notional
$591.97
Total PnL
$-511.26
Realised
$-432.92
Win rate
16%
69 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 71- YES
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $800B by December 31?
94 shares @ 17.4¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$16.06
$-0.39
- YES
Will Lambda's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?
103 shares @ 15.0¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.52
$-0.03
- YES
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?
75 shares @ 25.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.37
$-3.63
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $8B by December 31?
50 shares @ 32.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$15.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $35B by December 31?
50 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.80
$-0.25
- YES
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?
67 shares @ 22.4¢·now 21.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$14.06
$-0.92
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
78 shares @ 20.7¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.71
$-2.55
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
104 shares @ 14.7¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.54
$-1.75
- YES
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?
103 shares @ 17.6¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.34
$-4.72
- YES
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $5B by December 31?
55 shares @ 24.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.25
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $200B by December 31?$1.40Jul 29, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31?$5.00Jul 29, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?$5.22Jul 29, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?$2.62Jul 29, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Revolut's valuation hit (LOW) $75B by December 31?$0.88Jul 29, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Glean's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by December 31?$1.03Jul 29, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?$4.15Jul 29, 17:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $400B by December 31?$4.34Jul 29, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$5.18Jul 29, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?$6.69Jul 29, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$7.21Jul 29, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?$8.27Jul 29, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$9.50Jul 29, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by December 31?$0.90Jul 29, 15:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$0.32Jul 29, 10:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31?$3.50Jul 29, 10:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Perplexity's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31?$3.14Jul 29, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$7.00Jul 29, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31?$6.90Jul 29, 01:46 UTC
- REWARD$21.43Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
16% win rate over 69 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
69 closed markets, 16% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $3.73
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 14:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 17:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 69 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.