Private-Warren
0x8a81350175d98523f58940a7851dbb09c4ddc266
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
63
Open notional
$6.34
Total PnL
$-113.04
Realised
$0.59
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 63- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.35
$0.15
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 14?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 97.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.32
$0.12
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 94.1¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$1.29
$0.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$1.20
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?
1 shares @ 90.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$1.19
$-0.02
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on April 15?
35 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 16?
34 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-2.76
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 82°F or higher on April 15?
27 shares @ 9.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.61
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
18 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or below on April 17?
18 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026$0.00
$-0.42
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 16?$1.21Jul 14, 07:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 13?$1.35Jul 13, 22:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 13?$1.34Jul 13, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 39°C on July 15?$1.21Jul 13, 16:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 12?$1.40Jul 12, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 12?$1.35Jul 12, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on July 14?$1.21Jul 12, 08:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 14?$1.21Jul 12, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on July 14?$1.21Jul 12, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on July 13?$1.18Jul 11, 14:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 13?$1.21Jul 11, 07:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on July 12?$1.21Jul 10, 08:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on July 12?$1.21Jul 10, 06:56 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 3?$1.37Jul 3, 22:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 3?$1.38Jul 3, 15:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 2?$1.34Jul 2, 22:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on July 2?$1.42Jul 2, 16:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on July 2?$1.42Jul 2, 14:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 2?$1.53Jul 2, 09:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 2?$1.60Jul 2, 07:07 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 15:17 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 14, 07:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.