Gentle-Haste
0x8a85f75f078da91b702bc028836b7f90691f82dc
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
97
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-454.57
Realised
$18.37
Win rate
63%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 97- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11AM ET
1126 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
171 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
149 shares @ 53.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-80.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET
133 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
118 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
113 shares @ 9.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-11.01
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
102 shares @ 47.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$8.79Jul 15, 18:57 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$2.00Jul 8, 18:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 8, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET$1.03Jul 8, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7AM ET$1.05Jun 22, 11:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.04Jun 16, 21:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.92Jun 16, 18:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$0.20Jun 16, 18:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET$1.03Jun 16, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET$1.03Jun 16, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET$5.27Jun 16, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.33Jun 16, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.04Jun 16, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET$1.02Jun 16, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$3.41Jun 16, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET$2.10Jun 16, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$1.06Jun 16, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$5.18Jun 16, 13:37 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$6.44Jun 16, 13:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$5.19Jun 16, 13:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$12.45Jun 16, 13:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $4.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 11, 16:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 18:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.