Difficult-Fundraising
0x8a9c400659f3b28273d2e1673d9fa0872ba1436a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
37
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-38.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 12?
950 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on April 13?
478 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 13?
475 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or below on April 12?
298 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 12?
251 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April 13?
214 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 13?
213 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 13?
136 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on April 10?
93 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.90
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C or below on April 13?
63 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or below on April 12?$1.00Apr 12, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C or below on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?$1.00Apr 12, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 24°C on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C or below on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or below on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 9°C or below on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on April 12?$1.00Apr 12, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C or below on April 13?$1.00Apr 12, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on April 12?$1.00Apr 12, 00:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 21:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.13Apr 11, 17:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET$1.00Apr 11, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.08Apr 11, 00:09 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.11Apr 11, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET$1.00Apr 10, 18:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$1.00Apr 10, 17:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.22Apr 10, 17:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET$1.00Apr 10, 17:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 13:37 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 12, 01:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.