Substantial-Maiden
0x8aa0ab2fa93ff988a856d9f00adb263b3a85dbbc
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$19.90
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?
899 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
833 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?
683 shares @ 79.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 22, 2025$0.00
$-541.00
- YES
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?
402 shares @ 49.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-200.00
- NO
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?
400 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?
370 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?
312 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-78.00
- YES
US recession in 2025?
208 shares @ 28.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-60.17
- NO
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
180 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 4, 2025$0.00
$-50.76
- YES
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?
100 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-25.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?$78.00Jan 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$78.18Jan 30, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS strikes Iran by February 3, 2026?$4.00Jan 30, 15:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$64.70Jan 13, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYKhamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?$200.00Jan 13, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31?$200.00Oct 17, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no one dissent September Fed decision?$307.05Sep 2, 00:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025?$100.00Aug 30, 09:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?$100.00Aug 27, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no one dissent September Fed decision?$300.00Aug 26, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting?$100.00Aug 26, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?$21.00Aug 25, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?$220.00Aug 25, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 launch by August 25?$300.00Aug 25, 23:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?$90.00Jul 14, 09:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Diddy be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?$7.00Jul 2, 14:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$0.09Jul 2, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$1.84Jul 2, 11:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$0.23Jul 2, 11:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-China tariff agreement before 90 day deadline?$1.13Jul 2, 10:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $55.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 11:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 30, 15:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".