Reasonable-Association
0x8b0aabfba0a42b5f4e36efb7066d93667c919c5a
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.5K
Realised
$-29.08
Win rate
40%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
599 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-335.58
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
507 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-142.14
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
414 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-9.30
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET
202 shares @ 41.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-83.84
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET
200 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-55.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET
200 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-30.25
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET
200 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-84.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
200 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-35.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET
193 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-96.40
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
176 shares @ 41.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-72.75
Recent activity
- REFERRAL_REWARD$16.75Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$12.29Apr 24, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.64Apr 23, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$1.44Apr 22, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$4.29Apr 21, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$10.19Apr 20, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$9.06Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.72Apr 19, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$13.42Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$3.72Apr 18, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$16.34Apr 17, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$12.48Apr 16, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$5.85Apr 15, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$10.85Apr 14, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$8.82Apr 13, 00:30 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$2.64Apr 12, 00:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET$100.00Apr 11, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET$10.00Apr 11, 04:19 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$6.94Apr 11, 01:00 UTC
- REFERRAL_REWARD$6.59Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $55.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 10, 16:38 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 25, 00:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.