Tight-Delight
0x8b117d05e9ba9835640a6ab90e3b1b3a02a07525
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$133.45
Total PnL
$-5.8K
Realised
$-2.8K
Win rate
0%
25 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of July 13 2026?
120 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$120.12
$0.12
- ENGLAND
Spread: France (-1.5)
13 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$13.33
$3.73
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25?
2000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on April 13?
1160 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-295.67
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 28?
800 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$0.00
$-211.37
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on April 20?
775 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-197.58
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
774 shares @ 25.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-196.63
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?
766 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 20?
761 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-194.03
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17?
760 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 17, 2026$0.00
$-200.80
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of July 13 2026?$120.00Jul 17, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpread: France (-1.5)$9.73Jul 17, 07:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of June?$130.23Jul 17, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 end of June?$130.00Jun 27, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026?$129.23Jun 27, 11:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of June 22 2026?$129.01Jun 26, 05:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?$13.15Jun 26, 05:41 UTC
- REDEEMColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels$10.29Jun 12, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$12.90Jun 12, 10:53 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 1?$93.44Jun 12, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 1?$93.35Jun 1, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$5.51Jun 1, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYColorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels$3.67Jun 1, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C or higher on May 31?$12.16Jun 1, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$12.91Jun 1, 09:58 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$77.45Jun 1, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?$77.30May 31, 10:00 UTC
- REDEEMRoland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova$8.48May 31, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$68.84May 31, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30?$68.77May 30, 07:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 25 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
25 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $67.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 24, 08:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 07:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 25 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.