Wallet digest

active

Activity score

39/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-7.8K

Realised

$-943.80

Win rate

23%

43 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET
485 shares @ 70.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-343.42
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET
460 shares @ 73.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-338.81
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
431 shares @ 72.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-311.91
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET
393 shares @ 64.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-252.18
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET
341 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-194.41
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET
321 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-205.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
316 shares @ 73.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-232.29
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
313 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-13.49
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
281 shares @ 41.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-116.20
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
279 shares @ 49.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-139.21

Recent activity

REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET$0.23May 11, 07:34 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - May 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET$0.24May 11, 07:34 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET$0.41May 11, 07:34 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$97.57May 11, 00:45 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET$10.00May 10, 07:47 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET$171.77May 10, 07:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9PM ET$148.15May 10, 07:47 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET$100.41May 10, 06:49 UTC
REDEEMXRP Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET$73.68May 10, 06:49 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.17May 10, 06:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$1.00May 10, 06:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.47May 10, 06:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.92May 10, 06:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.80May 10, 06:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET$0.25May 10, 06:35 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.10May 10, 06:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$1.32May 10, 06:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.75May 10, 06:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$0.07May 10, 06:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET$2.15May 10, 06:30 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

62/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

23% win rate over 43 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

43 closed markets, 23% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity39 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry52 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 35
Avg trade size: $1.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 10, 06:12 UTC
Last active: May 11, 07:34 UTC
Win rate sample: 43 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 12:14:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data