0x8b1cd879ca6250cd15f98653c950c25bedd6d8a9
0x8b1cd879ca6250cd15f98653c950c25bedd6d8a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$102.90
Total PnL
$-111.83
Realised
$-35.92
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$60.00
$30.00
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
38 shares @ 50.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$37.47
$18.67
- OVER
O/U 0.5 Rounds
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 50.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$4.94
$-0.79
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
141 shares @ 30.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.49
$-41.91
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% in March?
1779 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-7.90
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
106 shares @ 22.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-23.59
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?
75 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-28.85
- OVER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
20 shares @ 38.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-7.46
- NO
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-25?
10 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 25, 2026$0.00
$-8.26
- UNDER
Games Total: O/U 2.5
10 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.83
Recent activity
- MERGEStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$13.89Jul 5, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$1.72Jul 5, 03:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.50Jul 4, 11:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.92Jul 4, 08:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.53Jul 3, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.54Jul 2, 15:24 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.20Jul 2, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.80Jul 2, 14:25 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.80Jul 2, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.33Jul 2, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$3.84Jul 2, 02:18 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.20Jul 1, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$4.56Jun 30, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$5.56Jun 30, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$6.35Jun 30, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$1.90Jun 30, 03:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$2.43Jun 29, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?$3.06Jun 29, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$8.00Jun 29, 14:58 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$0.29Jun 29, 14:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $4.56
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 10:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 19:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.