Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.0K

Realised

$-89.74

Win rate

167 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
238 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026
$0.00
$-2.38
UP
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
115 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-4.60
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
113 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-4.52
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
108 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026
$0.00
$-8.67
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET
95 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-28.38
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
86 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-27.36
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
80 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-3.19
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET
74 shares @ 34.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-25.16
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET
64 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026
$0.00
$-20.48
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
64 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026
$0.00
$-24.80

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$5.73Jul 26, 12:28 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$16.00Jul 26, 12:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$5.36Jul 26, 12:12 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$5.80Jul 26, 11:40 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$12.00Jul 26, 11:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET$5.24Jul 26, 11:07 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$9.00Jul 26, 10:56 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET$4.93Jul 26, 10:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$15.00Jul 26, 10:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET$4.72Jul 26, 10:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$8.00Jul 26, 09:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET$4.78Jul 26, 09:45 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$8.00Jul 26, 09:20 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET$4.22Jul 26, 09:16 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$7.00Jul 26, 09:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$4.06Jul 26, 09:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$4.18Jul 26, 09:00 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$4.46Jul 26, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET$4.70Jul 26, 08:00 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET$9.00Jul 26, 07:38 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 167 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

167 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry86 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk26 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $4.36
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 25, 23:47 UTC
Last active: Jul 26, 12:28 UTC
Win rate sample: 167 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:22:29 UTC·src:Polymarket Data