Unfolded-Exploration
0x8b52498fc11d163714801a388ad0989c4a1074b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
93
Open notional
$20.29
Total PnL
$-107.18
Realised
$88.01
Win rate
5%
82 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 93- NO
Base FDV above $500M one day after launch?
20 shares @ 24.5¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$8.99
$3.99
- NO
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?
33 shares @ 15.0¢·now 14.0¢·exp Sep 25, 2026$4.67
$-0.33
- NO
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.76
$-2.24
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 37.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.54
$0.54
- NO
Will Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Multipli.fi FDV above $20M one day after launch?
22 shares @ 18.0¢·now 5.2¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$1.15
$-2.84
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 28, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Nike (NKE) beat quarterly earnings?
56 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by July 31?$24.57Aug 1, 07:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Q2 MedTech revenue be above $9.1B?$5.00Jul 15, 12:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $140 Week of June 29 2026?$4.00Jul 2, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 29 2026?$4.55Jul 2, 20:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Presence" during the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup Match?$4.00Jul 2, 01:42 UTC
- REDEEMEngland to score first vs. DR Congo?$4.17Jul 1, 18:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the announcers say "Goal" 50+ times during the Mexico vs Ecuador FIFA World Cup Match?$4.55Jul 1, 17:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 30, 2026?$7.30Jul 1, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 1?$1.06Jul 1, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico win on 2026-06-30?$1.03Jul 1, 02:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$6.25Jul 1, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30?$4.16Jul 1, 01:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 8?$1.04Jun 30, 23:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the announcers say "Presence" during the England vs DR Congo FIFA World Cup Match?$1.03Jun 30, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 3?$1.03Jun 30, 23:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4?$1.05Jun 30, 22:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 2?$1.03Jun 30, 22:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 150 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 29-July 5?$1.00Jun 30, 22:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump insult someone on July 4?$1.03Jun 30, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance to win the second half?$1.02Jun 30, 22:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 82 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
82 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 23:44 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 07:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 82 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.