Indolent-Sensitive
0x8bac6c2d298f49d067337b2f98e0a5a62a94cf49
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-14.5K
Realised
$284.34
Win rate
53%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 1?
16225 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-16.22
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on November 9?
10478 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-22.08
- YES
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?
10000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August?
5580 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-238.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 9?
5231 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 9, 2025$0.00
$-26.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 3?
5227 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-241.57
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 3?
4571 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-40.22
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on April 27?
4322 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-24.56
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 20?
4088 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-29.25
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?
3718 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 1, 2025$0.00
$-139.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 24?$367.50Jul 24, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?$16.30Jul 24, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?$15.52Jul 24, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?$2.30Jul 24, 02:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 24?$51.18Jul 24, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?$18.96Jul 23, 22:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on July 24?$22.72Jul 23, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?$3.70Jul 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$8.24Jul 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$25.27Jul 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?$8.41Jul 23, 12:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$1.65Jul 23, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$0.33Jul 23, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$18.82Jul 23, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$31.02Jul 23, 12:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$0.36Jul 23, 10:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$2.00Jul 23, 10:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 23?$1.02Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$1.01Jul 23, 09:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?$0.36Jul 23, 09:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $11.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 06:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 15:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.