Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-3.2K

Realised

$-1.5K

Win rate

185 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
224 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-4.87
YES
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?
140 shares @ 21.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
NO
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
87 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-23.50
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET
30 shares @ 35.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025
$0.00
$-10.62
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - December 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
30 shares @ 32.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-9.87
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET
28 shares @ 71.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-20.17
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - December 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET
25 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 23, 2025
$0.00
$-6.87
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET
25 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 22, 2025
$0.00
$-6.87
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET
25 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.87
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET
25 shares @ 27.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 12, 2026
$0.00
$-6.87

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$8.50Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.97Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.55Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.91Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.11Jun 12, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.79Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.03Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.59May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$4.22May 29, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.88May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.31May 27, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.21May 26, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.96May 25, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$7.47May 24, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$8.79May 23, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.28May 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$15.06May 21, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$9.96May 20, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$6.74May 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$10.79May 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

58/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 185 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

30 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 20/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

185 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity37 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry18 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 30
Avg trade size: $0.05
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 17, 08:55 UTC
Last active: Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 185 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 18:31:32 UTC·src:Polymarket Data