Obvious-Passion
0x8bca2597740ae577699e7e39cee1c4c7a6ece136
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.1K
Realised
$63.29
Win rate
62%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 2?
4687 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-84.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 8?
2371 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$0.00
$-4.74
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 4?
1228 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.91
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 11?
1202 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1000 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-19.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 4?
848 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-42.49
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June 14?
804 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on July 17?
675 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on July 16?
518 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.99
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 5?
506 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-0.51
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on July 29?$1.95Jul 29, 13:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 29?$0.05Jul 29, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on July 29?$0.95Jul 29, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 29?$4.95Jul 29, 13:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 34°C on July 29?$3.59Jul 29, 13:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$0.96Jul 29, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 29?$0.82Jul 29, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 29?$2.35Jul 29, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on July 29?$2.40Jul 29, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 29?$2.16Jul 29, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 30?$0.07Jul 29, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?$2.68Jul 29, 11:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on July 29?$2.55Jul 29, 10:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on July 30?$2.74Jul 29, 10:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on July 29?$4.10Jul 29, 09:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 29?$2.75Jul 29, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on July 29?$1.35Jul 29, 08:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on July 29?$3.50Jul 29, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on July 29?$2.65Jul 29, 08:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
62% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
52 closed markets, 62% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.