Miserable-Guess-Arena
0x8bfcc5d7da52e36f304f39379e5c7e01910f8d4f
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
200
Open notional
$325.74
Total PnL
$-815.13
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 22?
13 shares @ 72.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$12.99
$3.63
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 22?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$11.99
$1.67
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 23?
11 shares @ 93.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$10.60
$0.37
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 22?
10 shares @ 93.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$9.99
$0.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on July 24?
14 shares @ 72.0¢·now 71.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.94
$-0.14
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 23?
10 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$9.93
$0.43
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 24?
10 shares @ 93.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$9.50
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 22?
9 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$9.00
$0.72
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 22?
9 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$9.00
$0.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 23?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$8.95
$0.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on July 23?$3.75Jul 22, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 24?$8.25Jul 22, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on July 22?$6.00Jul 22, 16:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on July 22?$6.00Jul 22, 16:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on July 22?$8.00Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 22?$6.00Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 41°C on July 22?$7.00Jul 22, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 42°C on July 22?$7.00Jul 22, 16:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 22?$5.77Jul 22, 16:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on July 22?$4.17Jul 22, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on July 22?$7.00Jul 22, 16:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 16:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on July 22?$5.00Jul 22, 15:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 22?$3.45Jul 22, 15:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 22?$9.00Jul 22, 15:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on July 24?$5.18Jul 22, 15:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 22?$10.00Jul 22, 15:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $4.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 07:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 18:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.