Unaware-Topic
0x8c06d2486119b76147619a31faa14382d71a5cfc
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-421.61
Realised
$-4.78
Win rate
50%
28 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 4?
549 shares @ 11.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-65.59
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down on January 4?
151 shares @ 20.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 4, 2026$0.00
$-30.49
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
142 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-2.35
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
75 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-14.24
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET
60 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-2.15
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 2?
60 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 2, 2026$0.00
$-48.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET
50 shares @ 42.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-21.10
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET
50 shares @ 30.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 27, 2025$0.00
$-15.04
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET
50 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-0.50
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
49 shares @ 19.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 28, 2025$0.00
$-9.74
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?$10.00May 5, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 27?$25.07May 5, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$150.16May 5, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?$9.90May 2, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$0.66Apr 27, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$13.29Apr 27, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$69.16Apr 27, 04:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$9.89Apr 27, 04:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 27?$9.90Apr 27, 04:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 27?$47.66Apr 27, 04:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on April 27?$15.01Apr 27, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$4.92Feb 21, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$4.92Feb 21, 16:42 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$14.60Feb 21, 16:42 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.45Feb 21, 16:25 UTC
- REDEEMXRP Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$1.75Feb 21, 16:24 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET$14.89Feb 21, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.10Feb 21, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$2.90Feb 21, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLXRP Up or Down - February 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET$1.05Feb 21, 16:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 28 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
28 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $5.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 16:19 UTC
- Last active
- May 5, 11:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 28 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.