Chilly-Starter
0x8c1ec61ca37e61ba50d0d1a9d5c431352d3d1ca5
Wallet digest
Activity score
78/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$22.11
Total PnL
$-0.06
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025?
22 shares @ 97.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$22.11
$0.64
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
16 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-0.26
- YES
Will Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?
16 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2025$0.00
$-0.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYRosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025?$21.47Aug 13, 12:38 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$5.58Aug 13, 12:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$15.90Aug 13, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?$5.49Jun 30, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be 8% or less in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$0.26Jun 30, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be between 6% and 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$0.45Jun 30, 10:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zohran Mamdani’s RCV margin of victory be greater than 9% in the New York City Mayoral Democratic Primary?$15.15Jun 30, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$0.00Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the NDP win between 5 and 6 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$0.00Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the NDP win between 3 and 4 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$0.00Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$0.00Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Barcelona win La Liga?$1.34Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the NDP win between 7 and 8 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$20.00Jun 30, 10:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barcelona win La Liga?$1.15Apr 23, 17:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the NDP win 9 or more seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$8.40Apr 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the NDP win between 7 and 8 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$3.40Apr 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the NDP win between 5 and 6 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$3.40Apr 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the NDP win between 3 and 4 seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$2.20Apr 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the NDP win 2 or fewer seats in the 2025 Canadian federal election?$1.80Apr 23, 17:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Canada join US as 51st state before July?$20.35Apr 23, 17:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 74/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $12.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 16, 14:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 13, 12:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.