Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-489.99

Realised

$-15.87

Win rate

57 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 57

YES
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
500 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?
250 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
OVER
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 4.5
111 shares @ 9.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?
107 shares @ 46.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 14, 2026
$0.00
$-49.49
OVER
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5
91 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-30.00
EDWARD GAMING
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs
83 shares @ 24.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
OVER
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5
75 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
YES
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
OVER
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5
48 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-20.00
OVER
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5
48 shares @ 21.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 12, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYPhoenix Mercury vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 178.5 AND Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 168.5 AND New York Liberty vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 192.5$0.10Aug 11, 09:47 UTC
TRADEBUYValorant: JD Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins$18.05Aug 11, 08:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$13.25Aug 11, 08:46 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$3.68Aug 11, 08:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$5.17Aug 11, 08:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.12Aug 11, 08:40 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$12.68Aug 11, 08:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$10.42Aug 11, 08:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$1.07Aug 11, 08:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00Aug 11, 08:38 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$0.00Aug 11, 08:38 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$3.14Aug 11, 08:37 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$11.61Aug 11, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.38Aug 11, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET$10.34Aug 11, 08:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$5.18Aug 11, 08:34 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$1.03Aug 11, 08:33 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$9.86Aug 11, 08:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET$10.34Aug 11, 08:32 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET$26.45Aug 11, 08:31 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

63/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 57 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

57 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity52 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry68 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 40
Avg trade size: $5.68
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 22, 05:42 UTC
Last active: Aug 11, 09:47 UTC
Win rate sample: 57 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:34:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data