Flimsy-Napkin
0x8c931fd772a9c369af4b8f74760a577d154f09b9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
45
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15?
4825 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 15, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
1150 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-115.00
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?
1036 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 10, 2025$0.00
$-29.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
726 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
606 shares @ 51.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 22, 2026$0.00
$-310.85
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
459 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-59.57
- PISTONS
Pistons vs. Cavaliers
424 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-246.04
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
420 shares @ 46.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 21, 2026$0.00
$-196.90
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026?
413 shares @ 32.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-135.00
- PAUL
Adelaide International: Tomas Machac vs Tommy Paul
364 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-90.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET$63.20May 17, 19:42 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$0.00May 17, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET$99.83May 17, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET$315.78Mar 22, 01:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$100.00Mar 22, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$100.00Mar 22, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$53.60Mar 22, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET$50.00Mar 22, 00:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET$20.00Mar 22, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$20.00Mar 22, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$659.38Mar 21, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET$500.79Mar 21, 01:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET$46.00Mar 21, 01:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$20.00Mar 21, 01:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$30.00Mar 21, 01:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$596.79Mar 21, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$320.26Mar 21, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$100.00Mar 21, 00:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$420.26Mar 21, 00:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$235.88Mar 21, 00:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $100.04
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 19, 02:48 UTC
- Last active
- May 17, 19:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".