Measly-Toothbrush
0x8c948f18b27df91842be760ea4ff4eee2d462e06
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$684.45
Total PnL
$-165.60
Realised
$-14.70
Win rate
53%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
667 shares @ 84.2¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$510.01
$-51.01
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?
98 shares @ 71.1¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$84.91
$15.11
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?
30 shares @ 72.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$21.89
$0.30
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?
25 shares @ 70.0¢·now 70.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$17.50
$0.00
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?
25 shares @ 65.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$16.63
$0.38
- NO
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
10 shares @ 59.8¢·now 85.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.78
$2.60
- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
19 shares @ 26.6¢·now 33.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.37
$1.32
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Switzerland before 2027?
149 shares @ 0.9¢·now 3.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.54
$3.27
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US before 2027?
100 shares @ 2.8¢·now 2.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.45
$-0.31
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be Saudi Arabian military action against Yemen by July 24, 2026?$1.88Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$8.56Jul 24, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 30?$16.25Jul 24, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 29?$17.50Jul 24, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 28?$21.59Jul 24, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$10.32Jul 24, 15:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$3.63Jul 24, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 24, 14:41 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$15.58Jul 24, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?$13.60Jul 24, 14:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?$26.87Jul 24, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$6.99Jul 24, 08:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?$2.09Jul 24, 07:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in July?$2.89Jul 24, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 24?$5.80Jul 24, 07:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 24?$3.04Jul 24, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?$0.19Jul 24, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on July 24?$3.89Jul 24, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on July 24?$5.44Jul 24, 07:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $11.05
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 13:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 19:49 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.