Stained-Aluminium
0x8ca39f77b443dd0acae0ecf4f1f2dff6e37e1f0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-523.18
Realised
$-1.60
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C or below on June 5?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 26?
100 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on May 25?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET
83 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 11, 2026$0.00
$-4.95
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 5?
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 5?
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 5?
48 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET
33 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET
33 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-9.28
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET
29 shares @ 27.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 22, 2026$0.00
$-7.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$5.00Jul 22, 12:45 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$5.40Jul 22, 12:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$3.49Jul 22, 12:43 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$5.15Jul 22, 12:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$3.43Jul 22, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$5.00Jul 22, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$3.90Jul 22, 12:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET$3.55Jul 22, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$8.21Jul 22, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$1.76Jul 22, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET$1.69Jul 22, 12:22 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$5.14Jul 22, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$3.26Jul 22, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$3.35Jul 22, 12:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET$3.87Jul 22, 12:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$7.00Jul 22, 12:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET$3.46Jul 22, 12:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET$3.62Jul 22, 12:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET$5.00Jul 22, 12:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$3.10Jul 22, 11:51 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
41/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $3.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 10:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 12:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.