Joint-Birdwatcher
0x8ca98a4cc4223206e9bd43a623ceb61a3a9d1f7f
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$5.01
Total PnL
$0.01
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 28, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 26?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$1.00
$0.00
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 27?$1.00Mar 25, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 26?$1.00Mar 25, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 25?$1.00Mar 25, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026?$1.00Mar 25, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 23 to March 25, 2026?$1.00Mar 25, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?$10.30Mar 25, 02:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 60-69 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?$10.28Jan 4, 02:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3?$11.0KJan 4, 02:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 3?$10.9KJan 3, 07:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?$10.14Jan 3, 06:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $200,000 in November?$10.10Nov 11, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $6000 in October?$25.13Nov 11, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $6000 in October?$25.10Oct 25, 01:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on October 24?$1.7KOct 25, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on October 24?$1.7KOct 24, 07:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?$11.51Oct 24, 07:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 2025?$11.50Oct 7, 05:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12?$1.00Oct 7, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon tweet between 460 and 479 times September 5–12?$1.00Sep 9, 02:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $150K in August?$1.02Sep 9, 02:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 30
- Avg trade size
- $465.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 23, 13:50 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 25, 02:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.