Unusual-Harald
0x8cabb6b6b2675efea71e89c53d2cdea66b28b113
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
53
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-155.08
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
OpenAI IPO in 2025?
63 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Alexandra Leitão be elected Mayor of Lisbon?
42 shares @ 37.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 12, 2025$0.00
$-16.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February?
41 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?
34 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Databricks IPO in 2025?
29 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.30
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
24 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025?
20 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?
19 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.90
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Shabana Mahmood be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
15 shares @ 92.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 8PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 6PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.89Jul 20, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$1.06Jul 20, 21:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.25Jul 20, 20:55 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.44Jul 20, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 20:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET$1.05Jul 20, 20:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.96Jul 20, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET$1.03Jul 20, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEstoril Open: Henrique Rocha vs Pedro Martinez$4.26Jul 20, 19:45 UTC
- REDEEMEstoril Open: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca Van Assche$3.62Jul 20, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYZug: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Alvaro Guillen Meza$6.16Jul 20, 13:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYEstoril Open: Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca Van Assche$2.96Jul 20, 13:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYTampere: Inaki Montes vs Hynek Barton$1.64Jul 20, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 37
- Avg trade size
- $2.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 15:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 21:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.