Likely-Conscience
0x8cd3dbe464cfef9b6f0d29acc486edd0b1641ddc
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-15.29
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?
10 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2025$0.00
$-6.30
- YES
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April?
8 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.84
- NO
Will Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?
5 shares @ 63.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.15
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?$5.00Aug 26, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?$10.00Aug 26, 09:42 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael announces ceasefire by January 16?$15.00Aug 26, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$6.30Jan 28, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?$4.10Jan 18, 07:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Andrew Tate leave Romania before April?$3.15Jan 17, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Supreme Court delay the Tiktok ban?$7.10Jan 16, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYYoon out as president of South Korea before April?$5.84Jan 16, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael announces ceasefire by January 16?$5.04Jan 16, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?$6.91Aug 10, 08:45 UTC
- TRADESELLUSA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?$4.75Aug 10, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYUSA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?$5.66Aug 8, 11:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Michelle Obama win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?$6.89Aug 8, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill another man be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$14.39Aug 1, 04:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$4.83Jul 31, 04:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$2.00Jul 30, 16:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$2.00Jul 30, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another man be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$7.20Jul 30, 11:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amy Klobuchar be the Democratic Presidential Nominee?$8.83Jul 30, 11:55 UTC
- REDEEMNancy Pelosi endorses Kamala as Dem Nominee?$0.24Jul 30, 11:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $2.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 08:45 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 26, 09:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.