Black-And-White-Reconsideration
0x8cdf40617559dee84396e8a4a5a35749937799e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
52
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-361.66
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 52- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 23?
223 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.34
- NO
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 5?
189 shares @ 88.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-166.24
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 13?
166 shares @ 6.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-10.82
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 19?
147 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 26?
135 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down on January 19?
114 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2026$0.00
$-3.86
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 12?
105 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.79
- NO
Will the price of Solana be between $140 and $150 on January 18?
98 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.65
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20?
97 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-2.73
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?
97 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 26, 2026$0.00
$-2.90
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?$33.14Jul 3, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on July 2?$31.15Jul 1, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 5?$6.98Jun 5, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 5?$159.27Jun 4, 22:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25?$146.85May 25, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25?$144.50May 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 23?$1.43May 22, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 20?$2.92May 20, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7?$174.00May 13, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on May 10?$1.30May 9, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7?$0.25May 7, 04:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 7?$172.36May 7, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 16?$22.42May 7, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?$174.34Apr 30, 16:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 17?$0.00Apr 19, 01:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on April 16?$21.07Apr 16, 13:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?$0.59Apr 12, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,400 April 6-12?$172.36Apr 12, 18:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in January?$0.00Apr 12, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 6?$1.25Apr 5, 23:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $43.52
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 12, 12:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 19:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.